In the case of Northern Ireland, with its own political parties, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the LucidTalk opinion poll of 3 February. Sponsors of pro-Obi opinion polls creating grounds for post-election violence. The Conservative party regained a minor amount of ground in the first 3 weeks of the Rishi Sunak premiership, but Mr Sunaks honeymoon period has been short lived, and those advances stalled soon after Jeremy Hunts financial statement. The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. With Labour improving its polling position in Scotand, the party would now gain 12 seats off the SNP in Scotland, albeit the SNP would mitigate those losses slightly by gaining three seats from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. Analysis pieces written by YouGov's data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. Worst polling for Yes since 2019 as SNP support continues to drop, poll READ MORE: Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action. . In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . Journalism in Britain is under threat. Voting Intention: Con 25%, Lab 48% (9-10 Nov 2022) | YouGov Support for the SNP, for Nicola Sturgeon and for Scottish independence has fallen sharply as the partys crisis over transgender rights deepens. Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for? The Japanese midfielder was handed the February Player of the Month award. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. All Rights Reserved. Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. Related: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. Entering the summer, levels of Conservative support took a sudden 3% hit following the resignation of then health secretary, Matt Hancock, in June 2021. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. The latest survey from YouGov has put Labour on 46% and the . Voters head to polls across Scotland, Wales and England for devolved The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. Dates. Automotive. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. You can also SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER . Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. Labour would be nipping at their heels with 22 Scottish MPs, up from just one currently. Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . All Rights Reserved. Any variations that might have an impact on the poll result, such as excluding 16- to 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The Conservatives continued to record significant poll leads over Labour almost consistently throughout 2020 and 2021, with only a brief interlude in autumn 2020 where this narrowed. Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. But we can't do it without you. Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view? Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. Gender Recognition Act, Tags: Gender Recognition Act, Gender Recognition Reform, Panelbase, poll, survey. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. Stay informed. YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Time shows those aged 16 to 35 back independence by 62 per cent, compared to 48 per cent for Scottish voters as a whole. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted following Kwasi Kwarteng's 'mini-Budget'shows the Tories have taken a severe hit following the poor reception to the Growth Plan. Pollster. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. The poll also showed a reversal on the independence question over past month, with support for secession down from 53 per cent to 47 per cent among those expressing a view the lowest since last spring. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Something went wrong, please try again later. Id 100% bang this poll pic.twitter.com/zW5y7LzwXS. Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. Those SNP MPs to lose their seats would include Amy Callaghan in East Dunbartonshire (to the Lib Dems) and Richard Thomson in Gordon (to the Tories). Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? UK general election polls 2023 | Statista However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. The exclusive poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, has support for Yes at its lowest level since just before the 2019 general election, which saw Boris Johnson's Conservative party earn an . It found that the yes vote was ahead in only one age group, amongst 25-to-39-year-olds, while in all others no. Much of the YouGov poll's Labour lead was buoyed by 17% of people who had previously voted for Boris Johnson saying they would now vote for Labour - double that of a week ago. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). All Rights Reserved. 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Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. This Conservative poll lead coincided with the unusual event of a governing party winning a seat from the Opposition, as occurred in the May 2021 Hartlepool by-election. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? 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The YouGov poll released on Monday night put the lead for the no campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month. BBC Scotland Gender Recognition Act Poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes, reported by the BBC 17 Feb 2022Full Results I DataMain findings: 57% would support making the process to acquire a gender recognition certificate easier but that support dropped when asked about specific proposals. Labour opens up historic poll lead over Tories after days of market The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. Latest news on Scottish Opinion Polls, including political opinion polls, voting intention polls, and opinion poll analysis. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. Scottish independence poll: do people in Scotland want to be At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Poll shows Scottish independence is not just a nationalist cause Poll suggests Conservatives could be in danger of losing more than a All Rights Reserved. Early 2021. Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Read more, Editorial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected], Commercial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected]. Boris Johnson Goads Rishi Sunak Over Poor Tory Poll Ratings SNP MP apologises over ignorant racial slur, Boris Johnson may have misled parliament on several occasions, Billionaires should not exist Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders issues stark warning to Brits over NHS, Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives, Elevenses: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. Poll Analysis: YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 - Ballot Box Scotland A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. Easy-to-digest video clips. A poll of more than 1,000 people . New YouGov projections suggest Tories could become UK's FOURTH party Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. Relevance is automatically assessed so some headlines not qualifying as Scottish Opinion Poll news might appear - please feel free to contact us regarding any persistent issues. YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. Scottish election polls and latest odds - who will win in 2021? Given that the parliamentary results in Wales and Scotland are influenced by the existence of a fourth major party (Plaid and the SNP), Politics.co.uk has undertaken separate analysis for swings in Welsh and Scottish constituencies. Question asked. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote, and from 40 per cent to 36 per cent in the regional vote and from 43 per cent to 42 per cent for Westminster. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. UK PM Johnson's Conservatives see support slump to lowest since ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds. % 28 45 9 4 1 3 7 2 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. UK Opinion Polls News | Latest UK Opinion Polls - NewsNow Latest News Last updated Nov 16, 2022 View all Trackers (4) Support for creation of a new English Parliament along the lines of the existing Scottish Parliament politics Surveys Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. Following Margaret Thatchers departure from Downing Street, support for Scottish independence fell back slightly and was polling around 30% in the middle of the 1990s. What has happened to the once-great British Airways? Scottish independence: yes campaign gets poll boost At the end of the 1970s, support for Scottish independence was polling at little more than 10%. Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting budget. The YouGov poll of voting intention conducted over Wednesday and Thursday showed 54% support for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. However as the Scottish parliament became fully operational in Edinburgh, support for independence initially waned, trending around 30% in the first decade of the twentieth century. In early March 2023, the Labour Party continue to consolidate their substantial lead over the Conservatives, one which is now trending at 21%.. Polling averages extrapolated in the 3 weeks to 2 March place Labour on 47.3%, the Conservatives on 26.8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9.3%. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. Kemi Badenoch, who has proved popular . It found 72% of voters - including 69% of those who voted Tory in 2019 -. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. Support for Welsh independence at its lowest level for three years, St Voting Intention polls & surveys | YouGov Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. Could Labour Profit From Nicola Sturgeons Resignation? Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders.
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